Vital Statistics: Up, Up, Down, Down

Last week, the National Statistical Coordination Board came out with the analysis report, "GDP, GDP, GDP: Who’s the FAREst ofthem all?" The article compares the economic performance of the five presidents of the country's Fifth Republic.

NSCB, my current employer, said that among the post-martial law presidents, President Benigno Aquino III (N. Aquino) got the highest GDP growth rate in his first year in office with 5.4% while former President Estrada got the lowest with 0.1%. Aquino also got the highest GDP growth rate in his second year of service with 4.9%, while Ramos got the lowest with 3.4%.

The article used the average annualized growth rate, a measure of central tendency, to compare the economic performance of each administration. While it is enlightening to parallel the average growth rates of each regime, I believe that it is equally important to consider another barometer of performance, which is stability.

How can we measure stability and why is this important? Businesses, and ordinary people for that matter, would want to be situated in a stable environment. Having a turbulent economy makes it impossible to look forward and forecast. How could a retailer project revenues if the economy keeps on swinging from a 10% surge one quarter to a 2% slowdown the next, to a 4% rebound the quarter after that. It would make forecasting a pain. If a company cannot forecast its sales, it cannot forecast its profits, and if it cannot project its profits, it would have a difficulty time deciding how much capital to invest.

The lack of stability creates a risky environment for businesses and investors, and we were taught in Economics 101 that we need investments to create jobs and raise the income of the average citizen.

Economists often use the measures of dispersion, the standard deviation and the variance are two of the most popular ones, to estimate risk and ultimately evaluate stability.

If you have a strong foundation in mathematics, statistics or economics, you may skip this part and move on to the next paragraph, but for those of you who don't, carry on. The measures of dispersion would give us a summary on spread of the data in a given set. It gives us a sense on how distant the observations are from one other. When the value of the measures of dispersion is high, then it is likely that observations in your data set are really distant from each other. For example, data set A (8, 56, 16, 6, 105, 2) would have a standard deviation* of 43, compare it to the data set B (1, 2, 2, 1, 5), which would have a standard deviation of 2. Notice how far way the values of each observations in set A are and how that resulted into set A having a significantly higher standard deviation compared to set B.

I've taken the liberty of computing for the standard deviation of annual GDP growth rates of the Corry Aquino (C. Aquino), Ramos, Estrada, and Arryo administrations. I felt that it was unfair to include the performance of the N. Aquino administration in the analysis since his term is still on-going. One may argue that the same consideration must be given with Estrada's, since his time in office was cut short by the revolt which launched Arroyo into power,. However, I believe that there is credit in including Estrada's administration in the analysis since his term has ended and the data needed to evaluate the overall stability of his entire regime is already complete.

Cory
INDUSTRY	Agri., Hunting, Forestry & Fishing	Industry Sector	Service Sector		GDP		GNI
85-86	3.7	2.3	4.2		3.4		4.1
86-87	3.1	3.9	5.1		4.3		6.7
87-88	3	8.4	6.9		6.8		8
88-89	2.7	7.1	6.7		6.2		6.2
89-90	0.20	2.30	4.60		3.00		7.90
90-91	1.5	-2.6	0.2		-0.6		2.2
91-92	0.4	-0.6	1		0.3		3.6
standard dev	1.39	3.92	2.60		2.77		2.25
Ramos
INDUSTRY	Agri., Hunting, Forestry & Fishing	Industry Sector	Service Sector		GDP		GNI
91-92	0.4	-0.6	1		0.3		3.6
92-93	2.1	1.6	2.5		2.1		3.8
93-94	2.5	5.6	4.1		4.4		5
94-95	0.6	6.4	4.7		4.7		5.2
95-96	3.70	6.30	6.20		5.80		9.40
96-97	2.9	6	5.3		5.2		5.4
97-98	-7	-2.7	2.8		-0.6		1.9
standard dev	3.62	3.77	1.80		2.53		2.33
Erap
INDUSTRY	Agri., Hunting, Forestry & Fishing	Industry Sector	Service Sector		GDP		GNI
97-98	-7	-2.7	2.8		-0.6		1.9
98-99	9.6	-1.5	4.5		3.1		2.7
99-00	3.4	6.5	3.3		4.4		7.7
00-01	3.4	1	4		2.9		3.6
standard dev	6.88	4.09	0.75		2.14		2.58
GMA
INDUSTRY	Agri., Hunting, Forestry & Fishing	Industry Sector	Service Sector		GDP		GNI
00-01	3.4	1	4		2.9		3.6
01-02	3.3	2.9	4.2		3.6		4.1
02-03	4.7	4.3	5.5		5		8.5
03-04	4.3	5.2	8.3		6.7		7.1
04-05	2.20	4.20	5.80		4.80		7.00
05-06	3.6	4.6	6		5.2		5
06-07	4.7	5.8	7.6		6.6		6.2
07-08	3.20	4.80	4.00		4.20		5.00
08-09	-0.7	-1.9	3.4		1.1		6.1
09-10	-0.2	11.6	7.2		7.6		8.2
standard dev	1.90	3.46	1.70		1.94		1.66

Based on the estimates, it is during the regime of former President Arroyo when the country experienced the least variability in terms of GDP fluctuation. The standard deviation of the GDP growth rates of the president, who is now facing criminal charges for corruption, was at 1.9, substantially lower compared to the standard deviation of the growth rates during the time of Estrada (2.13), Ramos (2.5), and C. Aquino (2.77). This means that despite the roller coaster boom and bust the country experienced during Arroyo's regime (GDP growth peaked growing at 6.6% in 2004, then it suddenly dropped to 1.1% two years later due to the Wallstreet Meltdown), the economy was still at its most stable.

I also thought that it would be interesting to find out which administration was most stable in the first 10 quarters of their terms. This is the most objective way, I believe, we can compare the stability of the N. Aquino administration with the administration of his predecessors. I computed for the standard deviation the growth rates of all five presidents in the first 10 quarter of their terms.

According to the estimates, the Arroyo regime still has the smallest standard deviation, at 0.99, suggesting that the economy during her first two years in office was still the most stable. The standard deviation for N. Aquino's regime only came in second, at 1.5. The standard deviation for C. Aquino, Ramos, and Estrada were estimated at 2.28, 1.9, and 2.6, respectively.

After giving it a lot of thought, I'm inclined to believe that the level of standard deviation in the first 10 quarters of the Arroyo rule may not necessarily be the result of her administration's policies. Normally, the first few quarters of a government regime would start from a high base because the previous year would be an election year. Election spending often fuels the economy. A slowdown usually follows an election year since the political spending would come to a stop by then. This is called the high-base effect. The sharp slowdown would reasonably result to a high discrepancy between the GDP growth of the first and second year in office, ultimately causing the standard deviation to be higher.

In Arroyo's case, there was no election prior to the start of her term. She was put to office by a popular revolt. There would be no base-effect to cause a discrepancy in the growth rates in the first two years of her term. Standard deviation would be moderate.

Cory
INDUSTRY		Agri., Hunting, Forestry and Fishing	Industry Sector	Service Sector		GDP		GNI
1985-1986	Q1	1.7	-1.7	0.5		-0.1		3.4
	Q2	3.2	2.3	2.9		2.8		-0.3
	Q3	7.8	7.1	8.1		7.7		12.4
	Q4	3.2	1.5	5.2		3.6		2.2
1986-1987	Q1	2.4	-0.6	6.3		3.1		3.4
	Q2	4.4	1.2	5.2		3.6		3.9
	Q3	3.7	11.8	3.7		6.7		13.5
	Q4	2	3.1	5.2		3.9		6.3
1987-1988	Q1	0.2	9.8	5.3		6		10.5
	Q2	-5.5	1.4	6.1		2.4		5.2
Standard Dev		3.40	4.48	2.08		2.28		4.60
Ramos
INDUSTRY		Agri., Hunting, Forestry & Fishing	Industry Sector	Service Sector		GDP		GNI
1991-1992	Q3	-1.7	1	0.5		0.4		7.4
	Q4	3.4	-5.8	1.4		-0.8		0.1
1992-1993	Q1	5	-3.2	2		0.7		2
	Q2	2.8	2.7	2.4		2.5		7.5
	Q3	-1.8	4	2.9		2.7		2
	Q4	1.7	3	2.6		2.5		3.6
1993-1994	Q1	-1.1	6.1	3.7		3.6		3.9
	Q2	5.9	4.5	4.4		4.6		4.3
	Q3	10.2	4.1	4.5		5.1		6.7
	Q4	-1.6	7.7	3.9		4.2		5
Standard Dev		4.00	4.12	1.31		1.94		2.47
Erap
NDUSTRY		Agri., Hunting, Forestry and Fishing	Industry Sector	Service Sector		GDP		GNI
1997-1998	Q3	-1.3	-3	3		0.2		2.3
	Q4	-8	-6.4	0.8		-3.1		0.1
1998-1999	Q1	6.3	-6	3.5		0.5		0.8
	Q2	12.8	-2.2	4.4		3.1		3.1
	Q3	8.9	0.3	4.7		3.6		2.3
	Q4	10.8	1.7	5.3		4.9		4.4
1999-2000	Q1	-0.4	7.7	3.2		4.1		6.8
	Q2	3.3	5.7	3.9		4.4		7
	Q3	6.7	7.5	3.9		5.5		8.5
	Q4	4.3	5.5	2.4		3.7		8.3
Standard Dev		6.25	5.38	1.28		2.67		3.10
GMA
INDUSTRY		Agri., Hunting, Forestry and Fishing	Industry Sector	Service Sector		GDP		GNI
2000-2001	Q3	2.9	0.8	4		2.7		4.2
	Q4	4.2	0.9	4.7		3.3		1.8
2001-2002	Q1	6	1.2	3.7		3.2		4.9
	Q2	0.5	5	4.2		4		2.8
	Q3	0.4	1.8	3.8		2.7		2.1
	Q4	5.5	3.5	5.1		4.6		6.6
2002-2003	Q1	4.1	4.5	5.1		4.8		7.9
	Q2	1.6	4.5	5.8		4.8		9.1
	Q3	6.4	4.7	5.4		5.3		9.7
	Q4	6.1	3.4	5.7		5		7.3
Standard Dev		2.31	1.69	0.78		0.99		2.89
PNoy
Industry		Agri., Hunting, Forestry & Fishing	Industry Sector	Service Sector		GDP		GNI
2009-2010	Q3	-2	9.8	7.8		7.3		6.9
	Q4	4.1	6.5	6.4		6.1		5.6
2010-2011	Q1	4.4	7.3	3.6		4.9		3.5
	Q2	8.3	-1.4	5.6		3.6		2.4
	Q3	2.2	0.1	5.2		3.2		2.2
	Q4	-2.5	3.4	5.9		4		4.5
2011-2012	Q1	1	5.3	8.1		6.3		5.1
	Q2	0.6	5.5	7.4		6		5.7
	Q3	4.1	8.1	7		7.1		6.6
	Q4	4.7	7.5	6.9		6.8		5.4
Standard Dev		3.3	3.6	1.4		1.5		1.6

My goal in writing this blog entry is to provide addition insight and supplement the information provided by NSCB. I admit that there are weaknesses the methodology used.  As the NSCB article said, "some analysts suggest that the changes in GDP mirror how Philippine presidents and their economic managers manage our economy. Of course, other analysts would think that this may be far too simplistic given that the starting conditions and other factors, including the external environment, were not the same across the periods of these Presidents." However, I believe that my analysis would somehow contribute to the on-going discourse on public policy and macroeconomic trends.

*the formula for the standard deviation is as follows:

Data Source: National Statistical Coordination Board

A God-fearing atheist

Here are all of the quotes salvaged from Bob Ong's original compilation:

There is but one truly serious philosophical problem, and that is suicide. Judging whether life is or is not worth living amounts to answering the fundamental question of philosophy. - Albert Camus If I believed in an outside force that we wanted to call God, and I believe that there is one, I think God would appreciate what I say, because I can't see God wanting to create a world full of idiots. - Marilyn Manson It's asking a great deal that things should appeal to your reason as well as your sense of the aesthetic. - W. Somerset Maugham, 'Of Human Bondage', 1915 Agnostic (n). A God-fearing atheist I don't care if it rains or freezes, 'long as I' got my plastic Jesus, sittin' on the dashboard of my car; It makes no difference if we hit a bump, -he's held on by a suction cup, sittin' on the dashboard of my car. I can even go a hundr'd miles-an-hour, as long as I've got that dee-vine power, sittin' on the dashboard of my car. - "Plastic Jesus," circa 1969, sign-on song of disk jockey Don Imis ...But who prays for Satan? Who, in eighteen centuries, has had the common humanity to pray for the one sinner that needed it most? - Mark Twain from: ang paboritong libro ni hudas by Bob Ong And Jesus said unto them, "And whom do you say that I am?" They replied, "You are the eschatological manifestation of the ground of our being, the ontological foundation of the context of our very selfhood revealed." And Jesus replied, "What?" If we do not need to worship God six days in the week, why do we need to worship him on the seventh? - Lemuel K. Washburn I have issues with anyone who treats faith as a burden instead of a blessing. You people don't celebrate your faith; you mourn it. - Serendipity (Dogma) Atheist Christmas movie: "Coincidence On 34th Street" There are no facts, only interpretations. - Friedrich Nietzsche Where facts are few, experts are many. - Donald R. Gannon Calvin: Do you believe in the devil? You know, a supreme evil being dedicated to the temptation, corruption, and destruction of man? Hobbes: I'm not sure that man needs the help. Do you think people know what they want? - God (Bruce Almighty) That only which we have within, can we see without. If we meet no gods, it is because we harbor none. If there is a grandeur in you, you will find grandeur in porters and sweeps. - Ralph Waldo Emerson Every man is a God, if he chooses to recognize this fact. - Anton LaVey You sharpen the human appetite to the point where it can split atoms with its desire; you build egos the size of cathedrals; fiber-optically connect the world to every eager impulse; grease even the dullest dreams with these dollar-green, gold-plated fantasies, until every human becomes an aspiring emperor, becomes his own God... and where can you go from there? - John Milton aka Satan (The Devil's Advocate) I had an experience. I can't prove and can't explain. But everything that I know as a human being tells me that it was real. I was given something wonderful, that changed me forever. A vision of the universe, that tells us undeniably, that we belong to something that is greater than ourselves, and that none of us is alone. - Ellie Arroway (Contact) Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. - Bertrand Russell In answer to the question of why it happened, I offer the modest proposal that our Universe is simply one of those things which happen from time to time. - Edward P. Tryon I don't believe in God, but I'm afraid of Him. - Gabriel Garcia Marquez Before God we are all equally wise—and equally foolish. - Albert Einstein (1879-1955) Conscience is the inner voice that warns us that someone might be looking. - H. L. Mencken (1880 - 1956) To be a saint is the exception; to be upright is the rule. Err, falter, sin, but be upright. To commit the least possible sin is the law for man. Sin is a gravitation. - Victor Hugo, 'Les Miserables' A hypocrite is a person who—but who isn't? - Don Marquis It would be very nice if there were a God who created the world and was a benevolent providence, and if there were a moral order in the universe and an after-life; but it is a very striking fact that all this is exactly as we are bound to wish it to be. - Sigmund Freud And God said, "Jeeze, this is dull." And it *was* dull. - Genesis 0:0 Own only what you can carry with you; know language, know countries, know people. Let your memory be your travel bag. - Alexander Solzhenitsyn He who never thinks of anything as ‘mine’ does not feel the lack of anything: he is never worried by a sense of loss. - Buddha (568-488 BC, Founder of Buddhism) Never eat more than you can lift. - Miss Piggy It ain't the parts of the Bible that I can't understand that bother me, it is the parts that I do understand. - Mark Twain Feminist theologians tell us that God is female. But what about the devil? What about her? I'm looking for loopholes. - WC Fields, when caught reading the Bible The ability to delude yourself may be an important survival tool. - Jane Wagner Never take ecstasy, beer, baccardi, weed, pepto bismol, vivarin, tums, tagamet hb, xanax, and valium in the same day. It makes it difficult to sleep at night. - Eminem, on drugs Comic Truth .2: Exposure to deadly radiation = Super powers. If you can't beat your computer at chess, try kickboxing. Men show their characters in nothing more clearly than in what they think laughable. - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe Whoever controls the media—the images—controls the culture. - Allen Ginsberg Did your parents just make me up so you'd be a good boy? - The Devil (Bedazzled) The greatest trick the devil ever pulled on the world was convincing us he didn't exist. - Verbal Kent (Usual Suspects) The Christian resolution to find the world ugly and bad, has made the world ugly and bad. - Friedrich Nietzsche The greatest ignorance is rejecting that which you know absolutely nothing about. - Jessica Branch I still went to church regularly, though, until I was eighteen years old. Then suddenly, the light bulb went on over my head. All the mindless morbidity and discipline was pretty sick - bleeding this, painful that and no meat on Friday. What is this shit?" - Frank Zappa Nothing is so good that somebody, somewhere, will not hate it. People break down into two groups when they experience something lucky. Group number one sees it as more than luck, more than coincidence. They see it as a sign, evidence, that there is someone up there, watching over them. Group number two sees it as just pure luck. Just happy chance. And surely, the people in Group number two are looking at those fourteen lights in very suspicious way. For them, the situation is fifty-fifty. Could be bad, Could be good. But deep down, they feel that whatever happens, they're on their own. And that fills them with fear. Yeah, there are those people. But there's a whole lot of people in Group number one. When they see those fourteen lights, they're looking at a miracle. And deep down, they feel that whatever's going to happen, there will be someone there to help them. And that fills them with hope. So what you have to ask yourself is what kind of person are you: Are you the kind that sees signs, sees miracles? Or do you believe that people just get lucky? Or, look at the question this way: Is it possible that there are no coincidences? - Graham Hess (Signs) If God did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him. - Voltaire I am convinced that the world is not a mere bog in which men and women trample themselves and die. Something magnificent is taking place here amidst the cruelties and tragedies, and the supreme challenge to intelligence is that of making the noblest and best in our curious heritage prevail. - C.A. Beard Sam: I know. It's all wrong. By rights we shouldn't even be here. But we are. It's like in the great stories, Mr. Frodo. The ones that really mattered. Full of darkness and danger they were. And sometimes you didn't want to know the end. Because how could the end be happy? How could the world go back to the way it was when so much bad had happened? But in the end, it's only a passing thing, this shadow. Even darkness must pass. A new day will come. And when the sun shines it will shine out the clearer. Those were the stories that stayed with you. That meant something, even if you were too small to understand why. But I think, Mr. Frodo, I do understand. I know now. Folk in those stories had lots of chances of turning back only they didn't. Because they were holding on to something. Frodo: What are we holding on to, Sam? Sam: There's some good in this world, Mr. Frodo. And it's worth fighting for. You must not lose faith in humanity. Humanity is an ocean; if a few drops of the ocean are dirty, the ocean does not become dirty. - Mahatma Gandhi I shall tell you a great secret my friend. Do not wait for the last judgment, it takes place every day. - Albert Camus

What hybernation has taught me so far

I've always told people that I can never live in the province. I've lived in the city ever since I can remember. I grew up in a crowded district of Manila called Tondo. There, the only private time you have is when you go to sleep. Sleep is private because that is the only time your consciousness is separate from everything else. In our neighborhood, houses were divided only by walls. The walls themselves don't seem to provide much seclusion to each family in the area. Whenever Tiyang Delma would engage in a heated argument with his sons, all of us living nearby would know. Even if you tone down your voice, you'd make an impression to the neighbors that something's wrong, one way or the other. Those living near by would hear it when you slam the door, throw a book, stomp your feet. Perhaps this is why the people in our part of the city grow up to be so loud: there is no use in toning down. There is no use in hiding your anger under a soft voice. People will find out eventually. When you're mad, you should might as well express rage at the fullness of tone. Might as well fuel your words with intensiveness. Why bother hiding behind the suppression of whisper?

I have become accustomed to the city: the dirty air from cars, the noise, the lives of people happening in front of me. I have come to realize that when I say that I can't live in the province, I am expressing the fear I have of own thoughts. In the place where I grew up, there is always something else to think about. There is always something to capture my attention. Something louder than what I have to say. I've been trying to isolate myself from the noise the past couple of days, and what it has done so far is to push to my consciousness reflections.

I have cut the time I spent in the internet and avoided networking and and messenger sites. The past few days that I have done so felt like moving into a province. Before, when I open my computer in the morning, the first thing I would do is to look at my Twitter and Face book accounts. And already, it's the lives of people starts flashing in front of me. What they're doing, how they feel, what interests them. Sure the status messages flashing in feeds are just projections, but isn't it that the same is true with everything we know about the people around us? Aren't they all projections? To cut myself from the virtual world is like withdrawing from the addiction of living in the denseness of the city. You are cut off. As the metropolitan noise fades slowly, your thoughts start to become louder. At first, it was frightening: my own thoughts. My desires. My worries. I can't remember when I last heard it talk to me so loudly and unfazed. And what is more bothering is how it is so unfamiliar.

Basag ulo

I regret to tell you that I'm the guy in the red corner. Unfortunately, the fight didn't go well for me. Nonetheless, it was a good match.

a game of chess

I have always been good at at giving people advise on difficult situation. I'm not just good at it, I'm awesome at it. But when I'm faced with my own personal problems. I suck at it. It's like when you're playing chess: as an observer, you see all the openings, but as a player, all moves are impossible. I need to find someone who's going to be my JL.

Free Lunch

The French moralist Joseph Joubert said that "misery is almost always the result of thinking." But does it follow that when you're happy, you you are foregoing "thinking?" We are taught in economics the concept of opportunity cost. There is no free lunch. Everything has an underlying cost. Everything. If we take that statement as fact, it would mean that happiness too has an underlying cost. When we're happy, it is likely that our delight is at the expense of other people's potential happiness.

The Return

"Besides intercourse (when the Image-repertoire goes to the devil), there is that other embrace, which is a motionless cradling: we are enchanted, bewitched: we are in the realm of sleep, without sleeping; we are within the voluptous infantilism of sleepiness: this is the moment for telling stories, the moment of the voice which takes me, siderates me, this is the return to the mother ("in the loving calm of your arms," says a poem set to music by Duparc). In this companionable incest, everything is suspended: time, law, prohibition: nothing is exhausted, nothing is wanted: all desires are abolished, for they seem definitively fulfilled. Yet, within this infantile embrace, the genital unfailingly appears; it cuts off the diffuse sensuality of the incestuous embrace; the logic of desire begins to function, the will-to-possess returns, the adult is superimposed upon the child. I am then two subjects at once: I want maternity and genitality. (The lover might be defined as a child getting an erection: such was the young Eros.)"
— Roland Barthes (A Lover's Discourse: Fragments)

What is Long Overdue

Sometimes I feel like I never learn. Of course, the less people involved in a project, the easier it is to control the project's out come. I invited three artists to help me out with my long-overdue comic book project. The idea of having more than one artist to work on the project was Josel's, the first artist I approached for the project. Josel and I tried to do the project ourselves but a lot of things got in the way. He had his thesis. I had work, graduate school, and my fucked up personal life. Tonight I invited two more artists to work with us--one is Dar Galvan, a former line artist for our college paper, and Nelz Yumul, the fiancée of one of my closest friends. All of them are skilled artists. I am confident that the project I have for them is worth their while. My problem is, I'm not really good at working with people. I always want to be the one in control. I think for this particular project, I have to make a lot of compromise. Oh well. This is for the good of man kind.

As Ricci used to say, Hair is Memory

Jonah Lehrer: Feeling Sad Makes Us More Creative

http://bit.ly/dDx8yA

I guess he was happy when he wrote the title for this one.